6 Reasons Why Goodluck Will Be Re-Elected Next Year

 

As we approach the presidential elections billed for February 14, 2015, below is an in-depth  look at six reasons why Otuoke-born, Goodluck Jonathan is the man to beat: 

1. Incumbency Factor:
History has shown  time and again that except in extremely rare cases, sitting African presidents don’t lose elections. Even when they do, it is usually hard for them to relinquish power. The Nigerian situation is even worse. The umpire in the elections, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)  and the security agencies are at the beck and call of the Aso-rock landlord, who can easily manipulate them for his own electoral advantage. Unfortunately, the heads of these agencies are first of all loyal to their boss, the president, instead of to Nigerians, Nigeria and the Nigerian constitution. Even with his perceived unpopularity across the nation, President Goodluck Jonathan is likely to carry the day after next year’s contest.

2. PDP’s National Appeal:
You cannot take anything away from the ruling party. Their national spread, grassroots mobilization strategies and a litany of deep pockets amongst their ranks, gives them an edge always in any political contest. The party hierarchy at both the national, state and local government levels have no doubt done their homework ahead of the 2015 elections. Another advantage the party has that swells its numbers on a daily basis is the fact that, just like every other political party in Nigeria, the PDP has no clear ideology and direction, which is why ‘stomach-inspired’ politicians from the nooks and crannies of the nation find solace in the party in order to partake and actively participate in the proverbial ‘national cake’ sharing. Continue reading....

 3. Southern Solidarity: 
This is one solid support base the president can bank on to deliver the votes for him in their large numbers come 2015. There seem to be an unwritten agreement between the South-South people and their counterparts in the South-east  to vote for the University of Port-harcourt graduate in next year’s presidential elections. Although, historically, this won’t come as surprise to political watchers as the two zones had always aligned politically.

4. Religious Bias:
Sadly, religion will play a major role in the voting pattern of Nigerians in next year’s presidential elections. This is partly due to the activities of  Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram. It is widely expected that most Christians across the nation will rather keep Goodluck Jonathan in power than vote someone who is not an adherent of their faith. There are concerns by the Christian community in Nigeria that if someone from the Muslim community emerges as the President, it will not augur well for them in terms of their safety. These views are mostly from Christians in the north who are in minority there. This is also as Boko Haram has always insisted that it’s ultimate goal is to Islamize Nigeria.

 

5. Feeble Electorates:
It is no more news that elections in Nigeria are highly monetized. Also, it is pertinent to note that majority of the voting population in Nigeria are the lower class in the society. These people are prone to the evil machinations and manipulations of the political class., who are hell-bent on subjecting them to political slavery, by constantly deceiving them to trade their political birth-rights, for a paltry sum of money or gifts. Sadly, these strategies work for the politicians and would no doubt rear its ugly head again in next year’s  presidential contests. The PDP will no doubt have the upper-hand in the ‘share the money’ campaign.

6. The Billionaires Influence:
Nigeria is reputed to have the highest number of billionaires in Africa. Suffice to say that most of these billionaires tacitly support the present administration of Goodluck Jonathan for obvious reasons. They are the high and mighty in the society. Their combined wealth can sustain the 36 states of the federation for four years. They have benefited immensely from the government’s policies and will not fold their arms and see their interests undermined. They all (at least openly) support the president’s re-election bid and they are all expected to contribute financially to his campaign which will no doubt give the president an edge over his opponents.